Ibadan North By-Election: Why APC Must Get It Right for 2027 | By Azeez T
The upcoming by-election in Ibadan North Federal Constituency is emerging as more than just a routine contest to fill a vacant seat. For the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ibadan North federal constituency and Oyo State in particular, it is a litmus test—one that could significantly shape the party’s trajectory ahead of the 2027 general elections. In a political climate increasingly defined by voter scepticism, internal wrangling, and shifting loyalties, how the APC navigates this contest may well determine whether it strengthens its grip on Oyo politics—or begins a slow, avoidable slide into electoral irrelevance.
The seat became vacant following the passing of Hon. Olaide Akinremi, a grassroots favourite whose popularity cut across party lines. His sudden death over a year ago had left a vacuum—one that APC must fill carefully if it hopes to retain control of this strategic constituency in the heart of Ibadan.
With 2027 on the horizon, the by-election serves as an early barometer of public sentiment and internal cohesion, yet warning signs are flashing.
With over 20 aspirants at the start and now 10 ready for the primary after some had stepped down, the party is expected to come out with a very strong, acceptable and grassroots candidate that is not just accepted by the party members but favoured by the electorate to win the by-election.
As the date for the party primary election knocks, the party is facing simmering tensions as accusations of imposition have surfaced, with some powerful interests alleged to have supported a particular candidate. Though party stakeholders have denied these accusations and cautioned against any attempt to impose a candidate by any powerhouse, they also warned that such could splinter the party and hand the seat to the opposition, similar to how the party lost the 2023 general election, especially with some members of the party already fraternising with the ruling PDP in the state.
The most immediate danger for the APC is not losing to the PDP but losing its cohesion ahead of 2027. If any candidate is imposed, disaffected aspirants may defect, withdraw support, or quietly sabotage the campaign, especially with the coalition ADC posing as an alternative to both PDP and APC in the country.
For a party that controls the presidency and hopes to consolidate power nationwide, losing Ibadan North could send an unflattering signal that Oyo APC’s internal contradictions are becoming its greatest weakness. Conversely, managing this by-election with fairness and strategy could rejuvenate the party’s image and set a precedent for 2027.
The APC doesn’t just need to win Ibadan North—it needs to win right.
The Ibadan North by-election is a battle for more than a legislative seat; it is a contest for credibility, unity, and momentum. If the APC gets it wrong, it risks not only a local defeat but a broader unravelling that could cost it dearly in 2027.
The clock is ticking—and the voters are watching.
