Oyo: Adelabu 2019, 2023 and the Prospect of 2027 | By Azeez T

In 2019, Adebayo Adekola Adelabu was relatively new to partisan politics. Though from a very strong political family line – being a grandson of the famous Adegoke Adelabu (Penkelemess) – and with a strong technocratic background in banking, he rose to the peak as a Deputy Governor at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Adelabu inherited the 2019 APC governorship ticket amid serious internal divisions in the party. This division, which some political analysts believed was mismanaged by both the candidate (Adelabu) and the Abiola Ajimobi-led leadership, pushed many party members out of the party and worked against the party and Adelabu’s ambition.

By 2023, after being schemed out of the party (APC) at Liberty Stadium during a governorship primary that was described by some political observers as “the hijack (Jagba)” by fractional groups within the party which produced Sen. Teslim Kolawole Folarin as the APC flag bearer, Adelabu took what many observers described as a ‘political gamble’ by decamping with many other aggrieved members of the party to the Accord Party.

While in the Accord party, Adelabu, together with many other vibrant candidates that pulled out of the APC, formed a contending opposition to the ruling PDP in the state. But due to various political alignments and realignments at both the federal and state levels, especially with his close relationship with President Bola Tinubu, Adelabu lost to incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde. Adelabu eventually returned to APC after the governorship election and was appointed as Minister for Power, a move which some described as the reward for his role in the alignment arrangements prior to the presidential election, which aided the outcome of the presidential election result in the state.

Prospect for 2027: What Lies Ahead?

One of the major strengths of Adelabu in the coming governorship election in Oyo State is name recognition. As a two-term gubernatorial hopeful, his campaigns have cemented his visibility in Oyo politics. And as a state that is known for rewarding similar patterns (as in the cases of Ajimobi in 2007 and 2011 and Seyi Makinde in 2011, 2015 and 2019), Adelabu in 2027 stands a very high chance of winning.

As a performing minister, his role as of mid-2024, Adelabu serving as the minister of power, a national portfolio that boosts his resume and influence, especially in the implementation of the Renew Hope agenda of Mr President, is targeted at addressing the foundational defect in the country’s power sector.

As a seasoned administrator, his technocratic reputation and understanding of the local economy, especially in Oyo State, being one of the major investors in the hospitality economy of the state, still earned him an added advantage, respected for his financial expertise and developmental vision.

One of the major challenges Adelabu may face before the 2027 governorship primary, especially within his party, is his decamping move during the 2022 election. Switching parties (APC to Accord back to APC) may impact his credibility within APC, especially as those that suffered the impact of his defection In 2023, those now in the same party might be waiting to take revenge.

Path Forward:

Reintegration with APC: With his return to APC, Adelabu should work seriously towards genuine reconciliation with key stakeholders and operate an open-door policy that welcomes all, irrespective of their current or previous alignment. He should do everything within his powers to specifically reconcile the victims of the 2023 elections.

Grassroots Mobilisation: He must strengthen his local political structures, improve his youth engagement and ensure a cordial relationship with those that followed him out of the party and every member of the APC across levels. Specifically, Adelabu must maintain a good relationship with all those that contested alongside him in 2019 and 2023. A structure of followers like that must not be pushed aside because the majority of those people would form the support network that could midwife the next move.

Policy Wins: As the power minister, his successful tenure will build credibility for his 2027 ambition, especially if he could be linked to tangible infrastructure or energy improvements in Oyo State. For example, a quick completion of the Ikere Gorge Dam hydropower project that can easily improve power supply around Oke Ogun and the entire state, as well as other purposeful electrification projects that will enhance power supply in the state and beyond, will be an added advantage.

In conclusion, Adelabu remains a strong contender for Oyo 2027. He needs to review his strategies, correct public misinterpretation of his person, align with critical stakeholders within and outside APC, leverage his national profile effectively, and address the political missteps of 2019 and 2023. His prospects are not just promising but brighter.