PDP Crisis: Makinde and Alao Akala’s Foreboding | By Sola Abegunde

If former Governor Adebayo Alao Akala had been alive today, looking at the difficult position Governor Seyi Makinde has put himself in the polity, perhaps, he would be saying ‘ I said so’.

In the build up to the 2019 general election, the late Governor, while responding to an insinuation that he would be stepping down for Eng. Seyi Makinde as he then was, told the journalist who interviewed him that he could never drop his gubernatorial ambition to support Makinde at the time.

He premised his decision on the fact that Seyi Makinde did not possess enough political experience and was unripe to be the Governor of Oyo state.

He said Seyi Makinde had never held neither an elective nor an appointive position and therefore, in his opinion, he lacked the capacity to be the Governor of Oyo state at the time.

‘ Emi ni nmaa wa tele Seyi Makinde. Seyi ti o se Alaga Kansu ri, ko dipo oselu kan mu ri. Seyi ko, Soun ni.'(How do you expect me to be supporting an inexperienced politician like Seyi Makinde to be Governor of Oyo state?).

That expression, ‘ Seyi ko, Soun ni’, earned Akala a great deal of criticisms, attacks, condemnation and insults at the time.

If you look at unfolding events in the polity today , about seven years after Akala made what was generally perceived as an infamous statement, you will be left with no option but to agree that what an elderly person sees while sitting down, the younger ones might not see it even at the top of a tall tree.

Surely, experience matters a lot in politics and Governor Seyi Makinde, though, lucky, he is politically naive.

It is obvious that the Oyo state Governor lacks basic knowledge of Party politics.

In politics, your greatest asset is your ability to identify the enemies you must never go against.

There are forces you have to manage rather than confront.

In politics, you must be wise enough to manage your ego.

There are some forces, before whom your ego has no place.

It’s either you bury your ego before them or they bury you politically for good.

The judgment of the Federal High Court which allegedly halted the holding of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP National Convention scheduled for Ibadan didn’t come to me as a surprise.

The landmines were there. Naked and I was surprised that Governor Makinde decided to step on a naked landmine.

Well, he has said that he could be very stubborn but I think his stubbornness has cost him dearly this time around.

I was shocked to see that after the Judge, after hearing the contending Parties, directed that they shouldn’t take any steps that could jeopardize the case, Governor Makinde and his side still carried on as if they didn’t understand the language of the Court.

They carried on with the cocksuredness of someone who had the confidence that when the judgment is read, it would be to their favor.

It was between that time and Friday, when the judgment was read that report had it that a former Deputy Governor of Oyo state, Taofik Arapaja had been nominated by Governor Makinde as the consensus National Secretary of the PDP.

I saw a great deal of congratulatory messages from Governor Makinde’s supporters to Arapaja.

Congratulatory messages, while awaiting a judgement that could make or mar the process that is required to validate the position?

A lot of activities were also going on before Friday and they were in the Press.

Honestly, I thought that was daring.

The judgment of the Federal High Court has been delivered.

A simple interpretation of the orders made show that Governor Makinde and his team lost out to the Wike Group and that is bad news on its own.

I was shocked when I read that the Governor Seyi Makinde Group said that they would go ahead with the National Convention scheduled for Ibadan.

When I read the report last night, I knew the decision must have been made as a results of the shock and frustrations.

The judgment effectively stopped the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, from participating in that Convention.

I do not think INEC would be reckless enough to disobey the judgment of court which directed it not to participate or accept any results from the outcome of the Ibadan Convention.

In other words, if the Ibadan Convention goes ahead, it would definitely be a jamboree, lacking any force of validity.

To now make matters worse, just a few hours ago, I saw the reports of suspension and counter suspensions by the two factions.

In fact, as we speak, the PDP now has two Acting National Chairman and when I read the reports, I said to myself, the end has finally come.

Now, who should be blamed for all these?

I will make an analogy before trying to apportion blames.

In the Bible, two harlots fought over a Baby.

One of the harlots had carelessly slept on her own Baby thereby killing it but she was also laying claim to the surviving child belonging to the other harlot.

King Solomon, a very wise King devised  a strategy to identify the real owner of the living child.

He asked that the living child be divided into two equal halves.

The real mother of the child cried and pleaded with the King to handover the child to the wicked harlot while the other harlot whose child had died asked the King to cut the Baby into two.

King Solomon decided that the harlot who pleaded for the life of the Baby was the real mother of the child.

In the case of the PDP, who is the wicked harlot who wouldn’t mind if the Baby is killed?

I have listened to those on the side of Governor Seyi Makinde.

They claimed that Wike and his Group are the trouble makers.

That could well be the case but, how on earth could anyone indict former Governor Nyesom Wike and absolve Governor Seyi Makinde of blame?

Where did the rain began to fall on the PDP?

Could we overlook the events of 2023 and act as if PDP’s problems started yesterday?

What agreement did the G-5 had with the APC in 2023?

At which point did Governor Makinde fall out with Wike and the G-5 and what are the reasons for the fall out?

Before you determine the destroyers of the PDP, you need to answer these questions.

There is no how you look at the present crisis that has befallen the PDP and you will not include Governor Makinde in the list of those who brought disaster on the party.

Perhaps, more than anyone else.

The PDP’s death warrant was signed in 2023 by the G-5  and Governor Seyi Makinde was the biggest beneficiary of a political marriage of death.

He knows how he was awarded a second term in office.

At that time, he gleefully dined with some people he wants the world to see as evil today.

It’s unfortunate that those who cast their lots on Governor Makinde within the PDP actually overlooked his anticidents.

I am surprised that a lot of people could actually play their bets on a man whose character epitomizes serial betrayal.

The late Ayinde Barrister once sang about what usually becomes of the hypocrites.

He said though, the hypocrite may flourish but the end of the hypocrite is always disastrous. ( Alabosi a maa lowo. Alabosi a maa kole. Atunbotan Alabosi kii dara).

The former Vice president Atiku Abubakar must be a happy fellow as we speak.

I also feel that those who prevailed on President Tinubu to honor the agreement that allowed Seyi Makinde to get reelected for a second term would also be happy.

When Akala said Seyi Makinde was politically naive, he was roasted and insulted at the time.

Is Akala not vindicated now?

How could you enter into a contest with a crocodile inside the river?

When a Yoruba man wants to deceive you, he will begin to praise you as the dog that visited the leopard in its abode and yet came back unscathed. ( Bi Yoruba ba ntan eeyan, won a ni o kaabo, aja to re Ile ekun to bo).

How could a dog visit the leopard in its abode and come back alive?

In any political contest between Wike and Makinde, he, Makinde will always be the dog and Wike, the leopard.

I remember the song that the late Adedibu used to render and to our great delights on campaign grounds in those days.

‘ Ni koleji Ekun, ni koleji Ekun, aja o nii debe loo kawe ni koleji Ekun ‘. ( If the leopard established a school, the dog must not venture into the place to study).

Governor Makinde, like a dog, had ventured into the wilderness of Wike’s leopard and he is being made minced meat of.

Now that they have destroyed the Party, what is the fate of the would be Aspirants for various positions?

I tried to warn those who are bent on following Governor Makinde to the last.

This journey would lead to perdition.

Even, if Governor Makinde’s intentions are to negotiate with Tinubu , as former Governor Fayose insinuated, has he not shot himself on the legs?

The other time, I said if he kept traveling the road he has chosen to travel, there would be nothing left for him to put on the negotiating table and it has happened.

In Tinubu’s or even Atiku’s shoes, I won’t waste my time negotiating with a man who hasbecome a political liability.

The coming days would be extremely challenging for Governor Makinde.

Even I, did not envisage that the game would be this hopeless.

A completely divided PDP?

The options left for Governor Makinde are unfortunately not pleasant at all.

None of the options align with his ego but I think he would still have to choose from them.

He could swallow his pride, go back to Wike, tails between his legs and accept his terms for settlements.

I bet. Those terms would be humbling.

He could swallow his pride and go back to Atiku in the ADC.

He could damn the consequences and move whatever remains of his rag-tag structure to one of the less established political parties or, he could just stay low, run out the remainder of his second term and quit politics.

Believe me, none of those options are palatable.

I foresee an alarming spate of defections from the PDP in the coming days.

I also foresee some storm from the home base of Governor Seyi Makinde.

The loyalties of most of his otherwise allies would be tested.

Like I said in my last piece, Governor Makinde has a big problem.

His style of totalitarian politics didn’t allow for a Leader who could hold things together in his absence.

In fact, he has kept saying that he doesn’t have a godfather.

It is also common knowledge that the closet to what you could call a rallying figure is his partner, I don’t know what to call him, whether brother or friend, Seye Famojuro.

It will be interesting to see how far he could help him in this trying times.

Someone told me recently that even though Governor Makinde has no godfather but he is comfortable with godmothers.

Perhaps, the godmother would swing into action now and do what a godfather can not do.

Out of ego, greed and naivety, Governor Seyi Makinde and others have killed the once largest political party in Africa.

Adieu the PDP.

Sola Abegunde.Sola Abegunde.