Iná èsìsì kìí jóni léèmejì: Why Oyo APC Must Embrace Direct Primaries | By Maroof Asudemade

There is a Yoruba proverb that says, “Ina esisi kii joni leemeji” It is a ‘warning that a flame that burns once should not be allowed the opportunity to burn again’. For the Oyo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the electoral misfortunes of 2019 and 2023 represent not just political losses, but hard, avoidable lessons. The flame of defeat had burnt twice. It must not burn for the third time. Unfortunately, the party appears to have treated those painful experiences as routine setbacks rather than as signals of deep-rooted structural and strategic failures. If the party is serious about winning in 2027, it must abandon the culture of consensus imposition and confront, honestly and decisively, the many issues that repeatedly undermined its chances.

The truth is stark: Oyo APC did not lose those elections solely because of the strength of its opponents. It lost largely because of internal contradictions, poor strategic choices, and an entrenched system that alienated its own base. One of the most damaging factors was the imposition of candidates under the guise of consensus. Rather than allowing a free, fair, and competitive process, candidates were handpicked by a select few power brokers. This created widespread resentment among aspirants and their supporters, many of whom felt cheated out of a legitimate opportunity to test their popularity. Politics, especially in a politically conscious state like Oyo, does not reward exclusion. Those sidelined did not simply disappear; they became disenchanted, and in many cases, worked against the party from within.

Closely tied to this was the absence of internal democracy. Party members were reduced to spectators in a process that should have empowered them. When people feel their voices do not matter, their commitment weakens. The APC in Oyo failed to build a sense of ownership among its grassroots members, and elections are ultimately decided at that level. Without enthusiasm at the base, even the most well-funded campaigns struggle to translate into votes.

Factionalism also played a significant role. The party went into both elections deeply divided, with competing camps unwilling to genuinely reconcile. These divisions were not superficial disagreements but entrenched rivalries driven by ego, ambition, and distrust. Efforts at reconciliation were often too little, too late, and largely cosmetic. Public displays of unity masked underlying bitterness that manifested on election day through sabotage, apathy, or quiet defection.

Another critical issue was the failure to manage post-primary grievances. In a healthy political system, disagreements after primaries are expected, but they must be managed with sincerity and fairness. In Oyo APC’s case, aggrieved aspirants were either ignored or inadequately engaged. Some were offered token appeasement that did not address their concerns, while others were completely sidelined. The result was predictable: parallel loyalties, anti-party activities, and a fractured campaign structure.

The party also suffered from poor candidate-market fit. Elections are not won by credentials alone; they are won by candidates who resonate with the electorate. In both 2019 and 2023, questions lingered about whether the party’s candidates truly reflected the mood and aspirations of the people. When candidates emerge through imposition rather than broad-based acceptance, they often struggle to connect organically with voters.

Strategic complacency further compounded these problems. There was an overreliance on federal influence and assumptions that national power would automatically translate into state-level victory. This miscalculation ignored the unique political dynamics of Oyo State, where local issues, personal relationships, and grassroots structures carry significant weight. Elections in Oyo are fiercely local, and any party that fails to respect that reality does so at its own peril.

Equally damaging was the weak grassroots mobilisation machinery. A divided party cannot effectively mobilise voters. Ward structures were either inactive or poorly coordinated, and the enthusiasm needed to drive voter turnout was lacking. In contrast, opponents capitalised on this weakness by presenting a more cohesive and energised front.

Communication failures also played a role. The party struggled to present a clear, compelling narrative to the electorate. Internal crises overshadowed policy messaging, and instead of selling a vision for governance, the party was often busy firefighting its own conflicts. In politics, perception is powerful, and a party seen as disorganized and divided is unlikely to inspire confidence among voters.

There was also the issue of arrogance and disconnect among some leaders. A section of the party leadership appeared insulated from the realities on the ground, dismissing genuine concerns raised by members and stakeholders. This created a widening gap between the leadership and the rank-and-file, further weakening cohesion.

Perhaps most damaging of all was the normalisation of these failures. Instead of conducting honest post-mortems after each electoral loss, the party often resorted to blame-shifting and superficial assessments. Without a culture of accountability, mistakes are repeated, and that is precisely what happened between 2019 and 2023.

As 2027 approaches, the Oyo APC faces a defining moment. It must decide whether it will continue on a path that has consistently led to disappointment or chart a new course rooted in transparency, inclusion, and genuine internal democracy. The era of consensus imposition must come to an end. Direct primaries, though not without their challenges, offer a more credible and participatory alternative. They provide a platform for members to choose their candidates, foster legitimacy, and reduce the bitterness that often follows manipulated processes.

Winning an election is not merely about defeating opponents; it is about building a party that people believe in, both internally and externally. Oyo APC has the structure, the talent, and the opportunity to reposition itself, but only if it is willing to confront its past with honesty and make bold changes.

The warning in the proverb remains clear. The fire has burned twice already. If the party allows it to burn a third time in 2027, it will not be for lack of warning, but for failure to learn.